Kari Lake silent as Arizona ballot drop confirms almost certain defeat

2 months ago 8

Things look bully for Hobbs, but it's not intolerable for Lake to "luck out" and drawback up to Hobbs. This is what Nate Cohn, the numbers feline for NY Times, wrote:

No projections successful AZGOV, but marque nary mistake: Lake didn't get the tallies she wanted and astir apt needed retired of Maricopa. It volition presumably adjacent further, but Lake doesn't person galore batches left. Each clip she falls short, her people successful the outstanding ballot gets higher.

A projection means thing precise adjacent to implicit certainty -- say, > 99.9% chance. There's a batch of country for thing to beryllium precise apt (90%, 95%, adjacent 99%!) and inactive not rather merit a contention call.

In this peculiar case, I don't deliberation this is successful that tier of implicit certainty. Lake decidedly needs to bash amended than what she's been doing, but not thing astir inconceivable. It's not adjacent the ~ 25 pts amended that Laxalt needed astatine this clip past night, earlier Clark

There are besides immoderate bully reasons to deliberation -- and you should travel @Garrett_Archer and @Jamal___James connected this worldly -- that the remaining Maricopa ballot is beauteous reddish and exurban. So that would shadiness maine toward caution

One past mode to enactment it. Imagine that, hypothetically, Lake got 65% of the ballot tomorrow. What hard information could I enactment guardant to explicate wherefore I thought that was impossible. I don't deliberation determination is one.

I americium cautiously optimistic astir Hobbs, based connected Nate Cohn's analysis. And that is besides the code of Nate Cohn's analysis. Overall, things look bully for Hobbs, but it's not retired of the realm of anticipation for Lake to marque a comeback (and aft Trump won successful 2016, don't discount anything).

Having said that, I can't basal Lake. It would beryllium karma if she lost. Fuck Lake and her predetermination denialism.

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